Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 16.790768 19.573707 22.626432 26.217074 30.317992 34.848596 40.225859
2024-10-06 12.551854 16.428897 21.133163 27.228413 34.880462 44.129186 56.110478
2024-10-13 10.239428 14.678950 20.505086 28.633411 39.589403 53.740837 73.280169
2024-10-20 8.072895 12.525589 18.777320 28.065282 41.352821 59.485554 85.862681
2024-10-27 6.307784 10.519078 16.804449 26.682274 41.577506 62.904351 95.360876
2024-11-03 5.725797 10.139366 17.067712 28.468207 46.408050 73.103101 115.215703
2024-11-10 5.357069 10.012691 17.658243 30.761822 52.168218 85.109507 138.718184
2024-11-17 4.684381 9.246278 17.085072 31.076040 54.793475 92.513684 155.790756
2024-11-24 4.007464 8.347335 16.143147 30.617163 56.044969 97.782262 169.851144
2024-12-01 3.379411 7.424347 15.014899 29.661273 56.297565 101.367641 181.374783
2024-12-08 2.961827 6.836662 14.407004 29.538655 57.936506 107.324579 197.204033
2024-12-15 2.623871 6.351408 13.920029 29.563356 59.805302 113.772250 214.290553
2024-12-22 2.142844 5.498398 12.639275 28.008619 58.798597 115.458614 223.942768
2024-12-29 1.952598 5.269127 12.617305 28.988248 62.788471 126.616598 251.676614
2025-01-05 1.821433 5.153575 12.819800 30.455435 67.893545 140.288064 285.152654
2025-01-12 1.559138 4.657701 12.099326 29.850594 68.731422 145.936848 304.095963
2025-01-19 1.285547 4.068350 11.061132 28.386951 67.589516 147.596440 315.496267
2025-01-26 1.238076 4.084219 11.471628 30.275751 73.811626 164.390475 357.713825
2025-02-02 1.218236 4.174940 12.079846 32.700754 81.445079 184.636032 408.243640
2025-02-09 1.098855 3.945372 11.834382 33.032896 84.410218 195.459646 440.492290
2025-02-16 0.960052 3.622907 11.290246 32.547826 85.437119 202.264236 464.949212
2025-02-23 0.820774 3.263175 10.581080 31.537256 85.102041 206.080810 483.378465
2025-03-02 0.729992 3.043194 10.227505 31.407613 86.864002 214.613578 512.454966